Decision-making and behavioral biases

Started by TehBorken, Jan 19 07 12:15

Previous topic - Next topic

TehBorken

 From Wikipedia....these are all great fun to read and laugh about. How many do you suffer from?
[hr style="width: 100%; height: 2px;"][h2][span class="mw-headline"]Decision-making and behavioral biases[/span][/h2] Many of these biases are studied for how they affect belief formation and business decisions and scientific research.[/p] [ul][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandwagon_effect" title="Bandwagon effect"]Bandwagon effect[/a] - the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink" title="Groupthink"]groupthink[/a], [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_behaviour" title="Herd behaviour"]herd behaviour[/a], [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mania" title="Mania"]manias[/a] and [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socionomics" title="Socionomics"]socionomics[/a]. [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Jung" title="Carl Jung"]Carl Jung[/a] pioneered the idea of the [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_unconscious" title="Collective unconscious"]collective unconscious[/a] which is considered by Jungian psychologists to be responsible for this cognitive bias.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_blind_spot" title="Bias blind spot"]Bias blind spot[/a] - the tendency not to compensate for one's own cognitive biases.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choice-supportive_bias" title="Choice-supportive bias"]Choice-supportive bias[/a] - the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias" title="Confirmation bias"]Confirmation bias[/a] - the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congruence_bias" title="Congruence bias"]Congruence bias[/a] - the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrast_effect" title="Contrast effect"]Contrast effect[/a] - the enhancement or diminishment of a weight or other measurement when compared with recently observed contrasting object.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%A9formation_professionnelle" title="Déformation professionnelle"]Déformation professionnelle[/a] - the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one's own profession, forgetting any broader point of view.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disconfirmation_bias" title="Disconfirmation bias"]Disconfirmation bias[/a] - the tendency for people to extend critical scrutiny to information which contradicts their prior beliefs and uncritically accept information that is congruent with their prior beliefs.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect" title="Endowment effect"]Endowment effect[/a] - the tendency for people to value something more as soon as they own it.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focusing_effect" title="Focusing effect"]Focusing effect[/a] - prediction bias occurring when people place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting" title="Hyperbolic discounting"]Hyperbolic discounting[/a] - the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion_of_control" title="Illusion of control"]Illusion of control[/a] - the tendency for human beings to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes which they clearly cannot.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_bias" title="Impact bias"]Impact bias[/a] - the tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_bias" title="Information bias"]Information bias[/a] - the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion" title="Loss aversion"]Loss aversion[/a] - the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost" title="Sunk cost"]sunk cost effects[/a])[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability" title="Neglect of probability"]Neglect of probability[/a] - the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere_exposure_effect" title="Mere exposure effect"]Mere exposure effect[/a] - the tendency for people to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omission_bias" title="Omission bias"]Omission bias[/a] - The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outcome_bias" title="Outcome bias"]Outcome bias[/a] - the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy" title="Planning fallacy"]Planning fallacy[/a] - the tendency to underestimate task-completion times.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization" title="Post-purchase rationalization"]Post-purchase rationalization[/a] - the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudocertainty_effect" title="Pseudocertainty effect"]Pseudocertainty effect[/a] - the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_perception" title="Selective perception"]Selective perception[/a] - the tendency for expectations to affect perception.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo_bias" title="Status quo bias"]Status quo bias[/a] - the tendency for people to like things to stay relatively the same.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Restorff_effect" title="Von Restorff effect"]Von Restorff effect[/a] - the tendency for an item that "stands out like a sore thumb" to be more likely to be remembered than other items.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-risk_bias" title="Zero-risk bias"]Zero-risk bias[/a] - preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.[/li][/ul] [a name="Biases_in_probability_and_belief" id="Biases_in_probability_and_belief"][/a][/p] [h2][span class="editsection"][/span][span class="mw-headline"]Biases in probability and belief[/span][/h2] Many of these biases are often studied for how they affect business and economic decisions and how they affect experimental research.[/p] [ul][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ambiguity_effect" title="Ambiguity effect"]Ambiguity effect[/a] - the avoidance of options for which missing information makes the probability seem "unknown".[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring" title="Anchoring"]Anchoring[/a] - the tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_bias" title="Anthropic bias"]Anthropic bias[/a] - the tendency for one's evidence to be biased by observation selection effects.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attentional_bias" title="Attentional bias"]Attentional bias[/a] - neglect of relevant data when making judgments of a correlation or association.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic" title="Availability heuristic"]Availability heuristic[/a] - a biased prediction, due to the tendency to focus on the most salient and emotionally-charged outcome.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_bias" title="Belief bias"]Belief bias[/a] - the tendency to base assessments on personal beliefs (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_perseverance" title="Belief perseverance"]belief perseverance[/a] and [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experimenter%27s_regress" title="Experimenter's regress"]Experimenter's regress[/a]).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_Overkill" title="Belief Overkill"]Belief Overkill[/a] - the tendency to bring beliefs and values together so that they all point to the same conclusion.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion" title="Clustering illusion"]Clustering illusion[/a] - the tendency to see patterns where actually none exist.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy" title="Conjunction fallacy"]Conjunction fallacy[/a] - the tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy" title="Gambler's fallacy"]Gambler's fallacy[/a] - the tendency to assume that individual random events are influenced by previous random events — "the coin has a memory".[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias" title="Hindsight bias"]Hindsight bias[/a] - sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the inclination to see past events as being predictable.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_correlation" title="Illusory correlation"]Illusory correlation[/a] - beliefs that inaccurately suppose a relationship between a certain type of action and an effect.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludic_Fallacy" title="Ludic Fallacy"]Ludic Fallacy[/a] - the analisys of chance related problems with the narrow frame of games. Ignoring the complexity of reality, and the non-gaussian distribution of many things.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mind_Projection_Fallacy&action=edit" class="new" title="Mind Projection Fallacy"]Mind Projection Fallacy[/a] - The notion that probabilities represent intrinsic properties of physics rather than a description of one's knowledge of the situation.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myside_bias" title="Myside bias"]Myside bias[/a] - the tendency for people to fail to look for or to ignore evidence against what they already favor.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_prior_base_rates_effect" title="Neglect of prior base rates effect"]Neglect of prior base rates effect[/a] - the tendency to fail to incorporate prior known probabilities which are pertinent to the decision at hand.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer-expectancy_effect" title="Observer-expectancy effect"]Observer-expectancy effect[/a] - when a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subject-expectancy_effect" title="Subject-expectancy effect"]subject-expectancy effect[/a]).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias" title="Optimism bias"]Optimism bias[/a] - the systematic tendency to be over-optimistic about the outcome of planned actions.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect" title="Overconfidence effect"]Overconfidence effect[/a] - the tendency to overestimate one's own abilities.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polarization_effect" title="Polarization effect"]Polarization effect[/a] - increase in strength of belief on both sides of an issue after presentation of neutral or mixed evidence, resulting from biased assimilation of the evidence.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valence_effect" title="Valence effect"]Positive outcome bias[/a] - a tendency in prediction to overestimate the probability of good things happening to them (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking" title="Wishful thinking"]wishful thinking[/a], [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias" title="Optimism bias"]optimism bias[/a] and [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valence_effect" title="Valence effect"]valence effect[/a]).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_effect" title="Recency effect"]Recency effect[/a] - the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak-end_rule" title="Peak-end rule"]peak-end rule[/a]).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosy_retrospection" title="Rosy retrospection"]Rosy retrospection[/a] - the tendency to rate past events more positively than they had actually rated them when the event occurred.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primacy_effect" title="Primacy effect"]Primacy effect[/a] - the tendency to weigh initial events more than subsequent events.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subadditivity_effect" title="Subadditivity effect"]Subadditivity effect[/a] - the tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy" title="Texas sharpshooter fallacy"]Texas sharpshooter fallacy[/a] - the fallacy of selecting or adjusting a hypothesis after the data is collected, making it impossible to test the hypothesis fairly.[/li][/ul] [a name="Social_biases" id="Social_biases"][/a][/p] [h2][span class="editsection"][/span][span class="mw-headline"]Social biases[/span][/h2] Most of these biases are labeled as [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attributional_bias" title="Attributional bias"]attributional biases[/a].[/p] [ul][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actor-observer_bias" title="Actor-observer bias"]Actor-observer bias[/a] - the tendency for explanations for other individual's behaviors to overemphasize the influence of their personality and underemphasize the influence of their situation. This is coupled with the opposite tendency for the self in that one's explanations for their own behaviors overemphasize my situation and underemphasize the influence of my personality. (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error" title="Fundamental attribution error"]fundamental attribution error[/a]).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egocentric_bias" title="Egocentric bias"]Egocentric bias[/a] - occurs when people claim more responsibility for themselves for the results of a joint action than an outside observer would.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forer_effect" title="Forer effect"]Forer effect[/a] (aka Barnum Effect) - the tendency to give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. For example, [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horoscope" title="Horoscope"]horoscopes[/a].[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_consensus_effect" title="False consensus effect"]False consensus effect[/a] - the tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error" title="Fundamental attribution error"]Fundamental attribution error[/a] - the tendency for people to over-emphasize personality-based explanations for behaviors observed in others while under-emphasizing the role and power of situational influences on the same behavior (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actor-observer_bias" title="Actor-observer bias"]actor-observer bias[/a], [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_attribution_error" title="Group attribution error"]group attribution error[/a], [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positivity_effect" title="Positivity effect"]positivity effect[/a], and [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_effect" title="Negativity effect"]negativity effect[/a]).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect" title="Halo effect"]Halo effect[/a] - the tendency for a person's positive or negative traits to "spill over" from one area of their personality to another in others' perceptions of them (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physical_attractiveness_stereotype" title="Physical attractiveness stereotype"]physical attractiveness stereotype[/a]).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion_of_asymmetric_insight" title="Illusion of asymmetric insight"]Illusion of asymmetric insight[/a] - people perceive their knowledge of their peers to surpass their peers' knowledge of them.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion_of_transparency" title="Illusion of transparency"]Illusion of transparency[/a] - people overestimate others' ability to know them, and they also overestimate their ability to know others.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingroup_bias" title="Ingroup bias"]Ingroup bias[/a] - preferential treatment people give to whom they perceive to be members of their own groups.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just-world_phenomenon" title="Just-world phenomenon"]Just-world phenomenon[/a] - the tendency for people to believe that the world is "just" and therefore people "get what they deserve."[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Wobegon_effect" title="Lake Wobegon effect"]Lake Wobegon effect[/a] - the human tendency to report flattering beliefs about oneself and believe that one is above average (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worse-than-average_effect" title="Worse-than-average effect"]worse-than-average effect[/a], and [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect" title="Overconfidence effect"]overconfidence effect[/a]).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notational_bias" title="Notational bias"]Notational bias[/a] - a form of cultural bias in which a notation induces the appearance of a nonexistent natural law.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outgroup_homogeneity_bias" title="Outgroup homogeneity bias"]Outgroup homogeneity bias[/a] - individuals see members of their own group as being relatively more varied than members of other groups.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projection_bias" title="Projection bias"]Projection bias[/a] - the tendency to unconsciously assume that others share the same or similar thoughts, beliefs, values, or positions.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-serving_bias" title="Self-serving bias"]Self-serving bias[/a] - the tendency to claim more responsibility for successes than failures. It may also manifest itself as a tendency for people to evaluate ambiguous information in a way beneficial to their interests (see also [a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group-serving_bias" title="Group-serving bias"]group-serving bias[/a]).[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy" title="Self-fulfilling prophecy"]Self-fulfilling prophecy[/a] - the tendency to engage in behaviors that elicit results which will (consciously or subconsciously) confirm our beliefs.[/li][li][a href="vny!://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trait_ascription_bias" title="Trait ascription bias"]Trait ascription bias[/a] - the tendency for people to view themselves as relatively variable in terms of personality, behavior and mood while viewing others as much more predictable.[/li][/ul]
 
The real trouble with reality is that there's no background music.

Gopher

I rejoice in (rather than suffer from) something akin to the anti-bandwagon effect (why wasn't it listed?).
A fool's paradise is better than none.

P.C.

Oy.....I recognized myself in far too many of those.

  That's a great article TehBorken.....thanks.
Sir Isaac Newton invented the swinging door....for the convenience of his cat.

Sportsdude

"We can't stop here. This is bat country."