Not exactly one person, one vote
[H3 id=deck][FONT size=3]Visible minorities in cities lose out at the ballot box, research shows [/FONT][/H3] Marina Jimenez
Globe and Mail
The votes of visible-minority city dwellers in federal elections are worth substantially less than those of rural Canadians, and marginally less than white city voters, according to a new study.
The research suggests that efforts at electoral reform have failed to adapt to the massive demographic change that has altered the face of Canada in the past two decades, as millions of immigrants have moved to large urban centres.
While rural ridings have traditionally been overrepresented in order to protect rural minorities and voters living in smaller provinces, the study suggests that a new minority must be protected: city dwellers of colour.
"Policies designed to protect the interests of rural minorities are having the inevitable consequence of diluting the votes of visible-minority Canadians who live in the most densely populated parts of large cities," says Sujit Choudhry, a University of Toronto constitutional law professor who co-wrote the paper with third-year law student Michael Pal.
The report, which analyzed the ethnic background and ridings of voters from the 1996 and 2001 census, is being released today by Montreal's Institute for Research on Public Policy.
Working from the premise that the average voter has a voting power of one, Prof. Choudhry and Mr. Pal assessed the value of votes cast by urban and rural voters, as well as visible minority and white voters within cities and rural areas. From 1996 to 2001, voting power declined for urban citizens as a whole -- and particularly for urban visible-minority voters, because they tend to live in the most populous ridings.
In 1996, rural votes were worth 1.15, white urban votes were worth .97 and visible-minority urban votes worth .96. By 2001, rural votes were worth 1.22, white urban votes were worth .97 and visible-minority urban votes worth .91.
While the difference between white and visible-minority urban voters is small, the researchers extrapolated that as more immigrants become citizens, the gap will grow significantly.
Historically, Canada chose not to have representation by population in order to protect rural minorities. Constitutional guarantees also give a minimum number of seats to provinces with populations in decline, such as Manitoba.
"We have known for years that there is an overweighting of rural constituencies," noted Myer Siemiatycki, director of the graduate program in immigration and settlement studies at Ryerson University. "But until this study, we haven't been able to quantify the impact on visible minorities and their place in the political process."
The study is an "alarm bell," he added, underlying the failure of the electoral reform process to take into account the country's radical demographic shift. In 1971, visible minorities accounted for less than 1 per cent of the population. By 2001, they made up 13.4 per cent of the population -- and nearly half of big cities such as Toronto. The visible-minority population is growing at a faster rate than the overall population, fuelled mainly by immigration.
The study, "Is Every Ballot Equal? Visible-minority Vote Dilution in Canada," proposes several solutions. For example, the statute that governs the drawing of ridings, which currently allows for a great variance in size, could be amended.
The number of seats in the House of Commons could also be increased to 327 from 308, with 12 new seats for Ontario, three for Alberta and four for British Columbia. These seats would then be allocated to the most populous areas of each province.
What is the value of your vote in a federal election? While the average ballot has a voting power of one, the value of a rural vote is more than one and an urban vote less because urban ridings are more populous. From 1996 to 2001, voting power declined for visible minority city dwellers.
1996 [TBODY] Visible minorities (rural)1.16Visible minorities (urban)0.95Nonvisible minorities (rural)1.15Nonvisible minorities (urban)0.97[/TBODY]
2001 [TBODY] Visible minorities (rural)1.19Visible minorities (urban)0.91Nonvisible minorities (rural)1.22Nonvisible minorities (urban)0.97[/TBODY]
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA, MICHAEL PAL AND SUJIT CHOUDHRY, UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO A question of connection The Toronto area is Canada's capital of diversity, with visible minorities expected to form more than half the population within a decade.
Yet new research suggests visible minorities are feeling less connected to Canada, and the next generation seems to feel even less of a bond with the country.
In a series of stories this week, The Globe explores this phenomenon and its possible solutions.
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