Yeah, I don't remember the thread either but I thought his point was that if you see your smite total rise over a long period, rather than in a day or two, then you should take it as a sign that you are repeatedly bringing heat on yourself.
But your point is well taken, when I've gotten smites I really had no idea what particular comment of mine brought them on (although I'm sure the neg karma was justified).
I try not to read too much into karma scores, because they can be arbitrary. On the other hand, when I see someone stirring shit right and left and they end up with a high smite total I don't consider that to be a conspiracy. It's just the nature of the beast.