Australian PM questions Obama's candidacy

[Sportsdude]

yeah Nation building. to turn the middle east into the next western europe.  

[CK]

Obama would be a culture shock after 8 years of Stinky Bush.

Damn! Nothing is more disgusting than a Nasty Bush!

[Sportsdude]

I'll cry if a Tancredo or Brownback get the Republican nomination and then somehow win the white house.  

[tenkani]

[span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"]But here is the counter agruement to Iraq will go to chaos if we pull out (which it will)[/span][br style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"][span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"]Vietnam[/span][br style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"][br style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"][span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"]We are now trading partners with Vietnam, we like the Vietnamese. These are the same people that we 'hated' 30 some odd years ago.[/span]

I don't know if this is a parellel. Only time will tell. When we pulled out of Vietnam the government of the South fell immediately. There were a few large-scale killings, but mostly those who were considered unreliable were sent to re-education camps. Religious and tribal affiliation was not a major issue after the government of the south fell, at least such things would not mark you for immediate execution. So the initial effects of our pullout in Iraq will likely be much more bloody.

Relations were poor between our two countries until the government of Vietnam decided to move towards capitalism (state-controlled capitalism) and trade opportunities developed. If an extremist theocratic government emerges in Iraq, I don't know that good relations between our two countries can come of that anytime soon. It will likely ally itself closely with Iran, and thus will be a thorn in our side in the future. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up invading Iraq again in a few decades.

No, I think too much water has flowed under that bridge to make friendship likely in our lifetime    

[Sportsdude]

yeah true. But then agian the neo-cons should have realized that Saddam was ruthless for a reason. He took control over three ethnic groups who hate each other.

For example they the repubs want to democratize the middle east. Okay. You ditch Mubarak in Eygpt and you get the Muslim Brotherhood.  You ditch the Saudi Royals and you get Al Queda people.  Syria you get Hezzbollah.

I knew this and I was a kid in high school.  The middle east is a powder keg. Bush lit the match in the live ammo room which was and is Iraq.

There's either 2 ways to go about this.  Put in about a million troops or get out.
Its like invading Japan during world war II.  My grandpa would have been one of the 10's of thousands of troops to invade the island but Truman had an easier way out. He dropped the bomb.

If he hadn't had dropped the bomb both the Japanese and the Americans would have had massive casualities in war.  I probably wouldn't be here, my grandpa probably would had died in the invasion.

Truman only had 2 options.
We only have 2 options.

We stay, put in about 500,000 more troops and get thousands of casualities with the possibility of this plan failing as well
Or
Getting out and letting it fall apart by itself and see who comes out on top.
 

[tenkani]

I agree 100% with your last post.
Except about the bomb and Japan, but I won't thread hijack    
 

[Sportsdude]

no biggie I'm anti nuking people and I thought and still think it was wrong to do but in hindsight I wouldn't be living if it wasn't for it.

But Bush really has set the tables for a World War III in the Middle East.

Scenario:
Saudi's back the Sunni's
Iran backs the Shia
Kurds fight everyone want independence
Turkey doesn't like Kurds they'll start to fight them
Hezzbollah then see's its a good idea to attack Israel from Syria
Israel goes after Hezzbollah in Syria and Lebanon
Eygpt helps out the Sunnis

So you've got
Israel fighting Lebanon, Syria

Sunni's versus Shia
Sunni's: Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Eygpt
vs.
Shia Iraq, Iran

Then you could have Israel being attacked by Syria and Lebanon
and Turkey fighting the Kurds.

Doomsday scenario

 

[tenkani]

Oh, I don't think that would be doomsday, not quite.
As long as Pakistan and India, Russia, China, North Korea etc keep their fingers off the trigger.
But who knows, things tend to spiral out of control.
War rages throughout the middle east, Israel decides to stick it's f*cking nose in (little doubt of this) and is attacked. Israel nukes various middle eastern countries in "self defense" and begins stuffing arabs into concentration camps (not a stretch when you think of where Israel is currently). Israel is attacked by various Arab countries, U.S.A. responds to outcry from Israeli lobby and leaps into the fray with its big size 13s. Horror ensues.
 

[Sportsdude]

Yeah then there's the Pakistan-India conflict zone over Kashmir. I remember in the 90's they had troops at the border staring each other down.

If it went into a regional conflict and everyone got involved then the trump cards would be a China or a Russia.  Would they side with Iran? If they did what would be the consequences?

Remember whenever a regional conflict happens and someone on the bad side hits you, you go to war with eveyone on the 'bad side' no matter what.

Right now it only takes one missile to cause this thing to blow up. aka Archduke Ferdinand getting shot.
 

[tenkani]

I just want to see the next season of Extras, then they can do whatever they want to whomever they want.

LOL, of course if you listen to some of the liberals in this country, they would have you believe that all we need is a democratic president in office to fix all this stuff! Hehe, how many democratic presidents allowed the Vietnam war to fester out of cowardice and more concern for U.S. "interests" than human life? And what are U.S. interests? Well, take a look at the wars we've waged since 1898 and tell me how many were fought to protect freedom and democracy.
 

[Sportsdude]

American war history is a bit flawed and skewed.  
We make messes and then don't clean them up.  We enter wars at the last minute and then we take all the glory (world war II comes to mind).

Apparently 'we' defeated the Soviets when they defeated themselves.
Oh and we created the internet and the car apparently the airplane.
 

[tenkani]

 LOL. Yeah WWII is a classic.
Whenever I hear how "we won WWII and saved Europe's ass" I feel like cracking skulls.
People conveniently forget, for instance, how many Russians died blunting the Nazi advance.

Truth vs. truthiness.

Allied losses in WWII:

                         [table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2" width="450"][tbody][tr][td height="46" width="16%"]      Country[/td][td height="46" width="11%"]      Pop.[/td][td height="46" width="20%"]     Killed/Missing[/td][td height="46" width="17%"]      Wounded[/td][td height="46" width="22%"]      Total(Military)[/td][td height="46" width="14%"]      Civilian (deaths)[/td][/tr][/tbody][/table]
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              [table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2" width="450"][tbody][tr][td width="17%"]     China [/td][td width="10%"]     450m [/td][td width="20%"]     1.3 million [/td][td width="17%"]     1.8 million[/td][td width="21%"]     3.1 million [/td][td width="15%"]     9 million [/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     Poland [/td][td width="10%"]     35m[/td][td width="20%"]     130,000[/td][td width="17%"]     200,000[/td][td width="21%"]     330,000[/td][td width="15%"]     2.5million[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     U.K. [/td][td width="10%"]     48m[/td][td width="20%"]     400,000[/td][td width="17%"]     300,000 [/td][td width="21%"]     700,000 [/td][td width="15%"]     60,000[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     France [/td][td width="10%"]     42m[/td][td width="20%"]     250,000[/td][td width="17%"]     350,000[/td][td width="21%"]     600,000[/td][td width="15%"]     270,000[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     Australia [/td][td width="10%"]     7m[/td][td width="20%"]     30,000[/td][td width="17%"]     40,000[/td][td width="21%"]     70,000[/td][td width="15%"]     --[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     India [/td][td width="10%"]     360m[/td][td width="20%"]     36,000[/td][td width="17%"]     64,000[/td][td width="21%"]     100,000[/td][td width="15%"]     --[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     New Zealand[/td][td width="10%"]     2m [/td][td width="20%"]     10,000[/td][td width="17%"]     20,000[/td][td width="21%"]     30,000[/td][td width="15%"]     --[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     So. Africa [/td][td width="10%"]     10m[/td][td width="20%"]     9,000[/td][td width="17%"]     14,000[/td][td width="21%"]     23,000[/td][td width="15%"]     --[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     Canada [/td][td width="10%"]     11m[/td][td width="20%"]     42,000[/td][td width="17%"]     50,000[/td][td width="21%"]     92,000[/td][td width="15%"]     --[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     Denmark[/td][td width="10%"]     4m[/td][td width="20%"]     2,000[/td][td width="17%"]     ?[/td][td width="21%"]     ?[/td][td width="15%"]     1,000[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     Norway[/td][td width="10%"]     3m[/td][td width="20%"]     10,000[/td][td width="17%"]     ?[/td][td width="21%"]      ?[/td][td width="15%"]     6,000[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     Belgium [/td][td width="10%"]     8m [/td][td width="20%"]     12,000[/td][td width="17%"]     16,000[/td][td width="21%"]     28,000[/td][td width="15%"]     100,000[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     Holland [/td][td width="10%"]     9m[/td][td width="20%"]     14,000[/td][td width="17%"]     7,000[/td][td width="21%"]     21,000[/td][td width="15%"]     250,000[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     Greece [/td][td width="10%"]     7m[/td][td width="20%"]     90,000[/td][td width="17%"]     ?[/td][td width="21%"]     ?[/td][td width="15%"]     400,000[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     Yugoslavia [/td][td width="10%"]     15m[/td][td width="20%"]     320,000[/td][td width="17%"]     ?[/td][td width="21%"]     ?[/td][td width="15%"]     1.3million[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     U.S.S.R. [/td][td width="10%"]     194m[/td][td width="20%"]     9 million[/td][td width="17%"]     18 million [/td][td width="21%"]     27 million[/td][td width="15%"]     19 million[/td][/tr][tr][td width="17%"]     U.S.A.[/td][td width="10%"]     129m[/td][td width="20%"]     300,000[/td][td width="17%"]     300,000[/td][td width="21%"]     600,000[/td][td width="15%"]     --[/td][/tr][/tbody][/table]Found here:
http://web.jjay.cuny.edu/~jobrien/reference/ob62.html

Notice the massive number of U.S. civilian deaths during WWII?
No, I didn't think so.
 
EDIT: yeah I didn't think the table would transfer properly.
Anyway, you get the idea.

[Sportsdude]

And remember Canada's force in World War II.  I remember some saying they had 9 million people of course half was women so they didn't serve and Quebec males really didn't serve (conscription) so hack 50% of males and the rest sort of served. thats 50% or so of eligible males. Thats a lot for a a small country.  

[tenkani]

 Canadians served bravely on the beaches of Normandy.
They were chopped to pieces with everybody else    

WWII was America's last truly noble military adventure.
I'm sure you've noticed how often our leaders bring up WWII when trying to promote their latest foreign intervention. Sadaam, of course, was the Hitler of the middle east (not Sharon, no way, the Israeli's are immune to criticism). And I remember how Noriega was painted as a Hitler. In fact, we planted a photo of Hitler in his house as part of our justification for the war. LOL.

In our interventions abroad, there are always 2 distinct stages, first we decide where we will strike based on cynical self interest (the self-interest of whom is a different issue). Second, we "sell" the war. The two stages rarely have anything to do with each other. In other words, the justification for the war almost never resembles the motive.
   

[Sportsdude]

of course the last war we actually did anything good was the second world war.  Hence all the video games on World War II.  Funny thing is I remember P.C. telling me in my heritage thread to "not live in the past" zing..