[DIV id=headline][H2]When will you Boomers die? Take this test[/H2][/DIV][DIV id=author][P class=byline]SCOTT DEVEAU
[P class=source]Globe and Mail Update
[UL class=columnistInfo][/UL][/DIV][DIV id=article style="FONT-SIZE: 100%"]By asking 12 simple questions, researchers claim they can determine with surprising accuracy whether someone over the age of 50 is going to die in the near future.
The questions, designed by researchers at the San Francisco VA Medical Center, assess various mortality risks, like whether someone smokes, or if they have diabetes. By using a simple point system, researchers claim an 81 per cent accuracy in determining whether someone over the age of 50 will die in the next four years.
"I would never say it's black or white," said lead author of the index Dr. Sei J. Lee. "It's 81 per cent accurate, which means that it's 19 per cent inaccurate. We won't ever get to the point where we can predict 100 per cent."
[DIV class="bigbox ad" id=boxR][SCRIPT type=text/XXXXscript ads="1"]aPs="boxR";[/SCRIPT][SCRIPT type=text/XXXXscript]var boxRAC = fnTdo('a'+'ai',300,250,ai,'j',nc);[/SCRIPT][/DIV]The test was developed in part because of Dr. Lee's concern for his own aging patients.
"I realized fairly early on as a doctor that one of the most basic questions patients ask of me is, 'What is going to happen to me?" he said. "Prediction is hard and I wanted to find a way to talk accurately with my patients."
The questionnaire was developed from information collected between 1998 and 2002 from nearly 20,000 adults over the age of 50. The patients were divided into three broad categories; age and gender, illnesses, and ability to do everyday tasks, like washing, dressing, and managing finances. Researchers then noted who died by the end of 2002, and assessed common factors in their demise.
The aim in the test is to have a low score. Men already have two points against them based on their gender. But if they smoke, there is another two points added, and if they getting winded walking a few blocks, they get another two points.
Oddly enough, risk factors like being overweight are not factored directly into questionnaire, but Dr. Lee notes that both diabetes and things like difficulty walking several block are, which are both often indicators of obesity. Being underweight is also a larger problem in older people than it is in younger people, so if someone is underweight, they actually get another point.
According to the test, someone who scores zero on the index has only a 1 per cent chance of dying in the next four years, according to Dr. Lee. Someone who scores a 14, has a 64 per cent chance of dying in the next four years.
Of course, there are other mitigating factors that could be altered to lower your score, like quitting smoking, but Dr. Lee said it gives a very fairly accurate indication of type of care a patient may require.
Dr. Lee said the information would be potentially useful for policy makers, health care providers, and researchers, and he said he would like to see it as a standard intake form in doctor's offices. He said his researchers are attempting to extend the test's accuracy to six or eight years in the near future.
The findings will appear in Wednesday's issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.
TAKE THE TEST:
The test as it appears in the Journal of the American Medical Association:
1. Age: 60-64 years old 1 point;
65-69 2 points;
70-74 3 points;
75-79 4 points;
80-84 5 points;
85 and older 7 points.
2. Male or Female: Male 2 points.
3. Body-Mass Index:
Less than 25 (normal weight or less) 1 point.
(Calculate by multiplying height in inches by itself; then divide weight in pounds by that total; then multiply the total by 703.)
4. Diabetes: 2 points.
5. Cancer (excluding minor skin cancers): 2 points.
6. Chronic lung disease that limits activities or requires oxygen use at home: 2 points.
7. Congestive heart failure: 2 points.
8. Cigarette smoking in the past week: 2 points.
9. Difficulty bathing/showering because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.
10. Difficulty managing money, paying bills, keeping track of expenses because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.
11. Difficulty walking several blocks because of a health problem: 2 points.
12. Difficulty pushing or pulling large objects like a living room chair because of a health problem: 1 point.
Score:
0 to 5 points: less than a 4 per cent risk of dying;
6-9 points: 15 per cent risk:
10-13 points: 42 per cent risk
14 or more points: 64 per cent risk.
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