[DIV class=headline]Pulling the plug on the Bloc Québécois
[DIV class=subheadline]Only sponsorship kept it alive: PM
Harper pushing an open federalism
[DIV class=pubdate]Apr. 29, 2006. 01:00 AM
[DIV class=byline]SEAN GORDON
[DIV class=byline]QUEBEC BUREAU CHIEF[/DIV]
[DIV class=articlebody][!-- icx_story_begin --]MONTREAL—It was a bold prediction tucked in among the applause lines and carefully sculpted political messaging of an otherwise run-of-the mill partisan speech.
There was scant reaction from the business audience of about 1,900 when Prime Minister Stephen Harper delivered the remark, but in the 10 days since what is now known in Quebec as the Tory leader's "third way" speech, it has drawn notice in the political class.
The line? That the federal sponsorship scandal "kept the Bloc (Québécois) alive — artificially," and "in our new approach to federalism, Quebec will have its place, the Bloc will have trouble finding theirs."
Whether you consider it hubris, ineffectual rhetoric or matter-of-fact prophecy depends, of course, on where you fit along Quebec's political spectrum.
But the question remains: Is the Bloc really on life support? Can Harper successfully marginalize the sovereignists, at least at the federal level? It's a truism of Quebec politics that predicting the demise of the sovereignty movement is a mug's game, but the Tories are sallying forth in the belief that option will pale in comparison to Harper's "open federalism."
Harper's key Quebec organizers were to informally gather this weekend in Montreal to discuss what went right and what went wrong in the last election — they admit winning 10 seats was unexpected — and start planning the next one.
The party's central thesis: The Bloc is past its best-before date.
"Our opponents are going to blast us, we're the target now. But on the plus side, next time we'll have accomplishments, we'll have a record to run on, and we'll be able to throw the Bloc's record of futility in its face," says a well-connected Quebec Tory insider.
The Bloc won 51 of Quebec's 75 seats; 13 went to the Liberals, and there was one independent.
Despite the bravado of recent weeks, which spawned predictions of a 50-seat landslide in the province (Tories finished second in about 40 ridings), the party is targeting roughly two dozen ridings where it sees the Bloc as vulnerable.
They spread from the St. Lawrence valley between Montreal and Quebec City, to the Lower St. Lawrence region east of the provincial capital, and south into the Eastern Townships. For the time being, urban Montreal is more or less a write-off.
"In the real world, we can maybe pick up seven seats out West, 10 or 15 in Ontario and four or five in Atlantic Canada. That means we need 20 to 25 more in Quebec (to guarantee a majority)," says the source.
The strategy is predicated on a strongly held conviction that Quebecers are tired of the usual federalist/sovereignist squabbles and are thirsting for change — a line Harper repeated ad nauseam during the election.
It's also a riff on the provincial Liberal stance and a longstanding critique of sovereignty by the right-leaning Action démocratique du Québec party, whose leader, Mario Dumont, was seated with Harper at the April 20 business luncheon.
Not surprisingly, it's a point of view Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe roundly rejects.
"Look, the polls put us a bit higher today than we were at the election ... we'll see when the people have their say, when they see the real Stephen Harper and the real Conservatives," Duceppe said this week. "Did they deliver the goods ... (or) did they laugh at people? I think that's the case, and we're seeing it more and more."
Bloc officials say their party won't be fooled again when the next federal vote rolls around.
"No one saw the Tories coming — now, we know they're here," says one.
There are those within the Bloc who fret that Duceppe could fall prey to the whims of an electorate that may be growing weary of supporting a party leader who would be fighting his fifth election, and a protest party fighting its sixth.
But generally, the sovereignist troops are upbeat — they have money in the bank, a strong ground organization, and a well-defined brand in a province that has yet to make up its mind about the Conservatives.
[TABLE width=280] [TBODY] [TR] [TD]
[/HR][FONT face=helvetica,arial size=2]`We'll see when the people have their say, when they see the real Stephen Harper'
Gilles Duceppe
[/FONT]
[/HR][/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]"Quebecers are in listening mode right now. They haven't made their judgment on Harper. Is it possible that he'll win enough seats to give him a majority here? Yes, but he's not there yet," says a senior Bloquiste. "Harper has a bridgehead, but there's been no conquest."
University of Montreal political science professor Pierre Martin, who has extensive expertise with the sovereignty movement, says he doubts Harper can win 25 Bloc seats in the near term, let alone relegate the Bloc to the sidelines.
"That would depend on a rare alignment of the planets and presupposes the complete collapse of the Liberals," he says, pointing out that the sponsorship scandal won't be as big a factor in Liberal fortunes under a new leader.
Martin says Harper may succeed in running on the mere promise of resolving longstanding Quebec grievances, but warned "you can run one election on expectations, but not two.
"The promise of openness to this point has been a promise and not much else. Now, it may be that's enough in the current climate, but not enough to win a majority of seats in Quebec," Martin says. "You have to remember that between 35 and 40 per cent of Quebecers have already made their choice (for sovereignty), and openness doesn't matter to them. Those votes are inaccessible to Harper."
He points to the strong anti-war sentiment in Quebec, the unpopularity of Harper's environmental policies, and other unforeseen political landmines.
Martin says there is really only one sure way for Harper to make major inroads with Bloc voters: "Someone is going to have to mention the word constitution at some point, it will have to be written down, unless he starts talking about Meech Lake and Charlottetown-plus, he won't win many Bloc votes."
There is a school of thought in Tory circles that Harper should consider a formal proposal for constitutional renewal as a lure to Quebec in the next election, a prospect the Prime Minister has scrupulously downplayed — at least in public.
Even if a constitutional plan were forthcoming, the Bloc points to the fact that Harper and Quebec Premier Jean Charest have created sky-high expectations relating to a resolution of the fiscal imbalance, and that a failure to deliver will melt Tory support like a spring thaw.
And party sources in Quebec say there is mounting disquiet and frustration over the way the party is handling its election commitments.
Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon annoyed his caucus mates by granting an interview to a Quebec magazine that implied he is charge of the party in the province. But the reality is more nuanced.
Cannon is indeed close to the Prime Minister, but Harper has designated Public Works Minister Michael Fortier as his Montreal lieutenant, and International Co-operation Minister Josée Verner is responsible for Quebec City.
Some Quebec Tories also grouse that Cannon has been unwilling to take up crucial files and is too keen on controlling the party's resources in the province.
All of which may provide some solace to the Liberals and the Bloc.
The Tories are already facing heat for a perceived bait and switch on a promise to allow Quebec to speak more freely at the United Nations Education, Science and Culture Organization.
In a much-ballyhooed election speech on Dec. 19, Harper promised Quebec would have Francophonie-style representation in the forum. (The province is an associate member of la Francophonie and speaks for itself but does not vote.)
But the deal being cobbled together by Harper and Charest on UNESCO looks a lot like an old Liberal promise made by former prime minister Paul Martin — the province will have input, but will not speak on its own behalf.
Then, there are the more prosaic concerns of federal largesse and, more specifically, the lack of it flowing to key Tory ridings.
In Quebec City, the Conservatives have been pilloried for reneging on a promise to help keep a local zoo open (that the province didn't want to do its part doesn't seem to matter; the provincial Liberals are already detested in the city).
Now, there are more storm clouds over a failure to deliver on a pledge to reverse the closing of a postal sorting terminal in the city, a file for which Cannon, who is responsible for Canada Post, may also have to shoulder the blame.
"If they can't get anything done in Quebec City, the one place that they actually won votes, how can people avoid drawing the conclusion that voting for power is useless?" says a Quebec City Bloc organizer.
with files from Graham Fraser[!-- icx_story_end --][/DIV]
